Posted: 31.12.21 at 12:04 by Geoff Newman
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So, with 2022 on the horizon, here are some predictions from Lyndhurst's development director Geoff Newman.
'The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable' said the Canadian American economist John Kenneth Galbraith and as an economics graduate you might expect me to challenge that assertion.
Well, to be honest I think he was right.
As I write this inflation for the 12 months to November has come in at 5.1% above the ONS prediction of 4.7%.
And so, it is with some trepidation that I set out to write this piece which will be in two parts, the first to summarise the predictions for 2022 of the great and the good and the second a more lighthearted look into the stars.
I think a good place to start is the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Report published in November, a rather dry tome but one that at Lyndhurst we look at with interest when helping our clients plan for the future.
What does it say: for inflation it will be a year of two halves predicted to reach 5% around April before falling back to 3.4% at the end of 2022; GDP growth will be 2.9% for the year and bank rate is projected to be at 1% by the year end.
As financial planners we look at a much longer term than one year and so with inflation predicted to be 1.9% by the end of 2024 we do not need to amend our models.
So much for the MPC’s predictions on the general economy, what are the equity analysts saying about stock markets for 2022.
Here the adage of 'time in the market rather than timing the market' is as appropriate as ever given the possible headwinds in the global economy.
However, the consensus seems to be that it will be a year of two halves with stronger market growth in the first half followed by consolidation in the second half.
That’s all very well but what do the stars say?
I’m a Leo and although I don’t follow astrology normally, I thought I would investigate what 2022 holds for me:
'This year’s eclipses (April 30, May 15, October 25, and November 8) involve your planetary ruler, the Sun—when the universe will ask you to go with the flow and make considerable life changes'.
We are taking delivery of our first electric car in March, does that count as considerable life changes?
As part of our sustainable strategy at Lyndhurst we are encouraging our team to move to EVs over the next few years.
And now for a bit of fun, some predictions from the stars above:
-July 4 the WHO will declare the pandemic over
-The FTSE 100 will finish the year at 7816
-The Dow Jones will finish the year at 38772
-The £/$ exchange rate will be 1.30
-Bank rate will be 1.5%
-Inflation will be 4.2% for the previous 12 months
These are based on random number selection rather than any economic research so it will be interesting to revisit in 12 months’ time and see how good the stars have been!
This does not represent an investment recommendation or the view of Lyndhurst just a bit of fun!
We wish all our clients a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
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