Six new Covid cases reported in north Herts as positive test numbers rise - should we be concerned?
Six new Covid-19 cases have been reported in north Herts over the last seven days - as the daily tally of positive coronavirus tests reaches the highest level since early June.
As PM Boris Johnson has warned of more 'wretched Covid' as he addressed his cabinet on Tuesday morning, the latest figures show 334,467 people have tested positive for the virus in the UK - with 764 patients in hospital with coronavirus and 60 patients on ventilators.
Despite the PM saying that although there would be more outbreaks of 'this wretched Covid', he was 'absolutely confident' that the country could cope with them.
But should we be concerned? Read our special, in-depth report on Hitchin Nub News.
What is the latest 'R' number in Hitchin and north Herts?
The reproduction number known as the 'R' rate - the rate of infection - is currently between 0.8-1.0 in the East of England, which also covers Hitchin and north Herts.
Put simply the 'R' rate is the average number of secondary infections produced by a single infected person.
An R number of 1 means that on average every person who is infected will infect 1 other person, meaning the total number of infections is stable.
If R is 2, on average, each infected person infects 2 more people.
If R is 0.5 then on average for each 2 infected people, there will be only 1 new infection.
If R is greater than 1 the epidemic is growing, if R is less than 1 the epidemic is shrinking.
Are cases actually rising again?
Numbers for positive coronavirus tests nationally reveal a clear upward trajectory since early July.
On July 5, 516 new cases were reported, with a rolling seven-day average of more than 546 per day - while on August 26, 1,048 cases were noted, with a rolling seven-day average of more than 1,164 per day.
The doubling in numbers could be attributed to an increase in people tested. 126,100 tests were processed on July 5, compared with 186,500 on August 26.
Why are infections rising?
Experts underline that following lockdown restrictions being eased earlier this summer, it is natural to expect a spike in cases as more people gather in public places.
With restrictions gradually eased since mid-May, for example, with social bubbles allowed from the middle of June and pubs and restaurants allowed to reopen from early July, then it follows that despite the best intentions of so many, the infection is bound to have spread further.
Put simply, because people have left their homes and are mingling again, albeit with social distancing measures in place - which was not the case during lockdown, when the majority of people did not leave their homes - Covid is spreading once again.
"The key thing we have to do is get to balance, letting people get back to normal [while] keeping control of transmission," said Prof Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London.
He also added, that local restrictions – as already seen in places such as in the east Midlands in the city of Leicester and greater Manchester in the town of Oldham - could become commonplace to combat further outbreaks.
Are deaths rising?
While infections are undeniably rising, the number of people who are dying from Covid still remains extremely low - the daily figure for UK deaths within 28 days of a positive test has not topped 20 since July 21.
This rise has a number of explanations.
Health professionals point to an increase in the life-saving drug dexamethasone.
While many experts insist infections do seem to be more prevalent among younger people, who are better at fighting the infection than older people - meaning fewer deaths.
How concerned should we become?
The spike in infection numbers rate since the height of summer has seen concerns rise over more lockdown easing – but all we can do is follow government guidelines and do the best we can to take precautions in staying safe, which includes washing our hands regularly, wearing face masks and continuing to adhere to social distancing guidelines.
Read Hitchin Nub News for the latest on the Covid crisis.
New hitchin Jobs Section Launched!!
Vacancies updated hourly!!
Click here: hitchin jobs
Share: